A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
